Google Gemini has made a serious accusation.

Google Gemini claims the recent innovative acts is nothing.

Check this Google Gemini answer on Alzheimer's―

1. Trends and Latest Estimates in Japan

 
According to the latest projections released by a Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) research group in May 2024, the outlook through 2040 has been significantly lowered from the previous 2015 forecast. 

  • Background of Downward Revision: Previous forecasts suggested that by 2025, "1 in 5 elderly people (20%)" would have dementia. However, latest data from four regions across Japan (including the Hisayama Study) show that the age-specific prevalence rate is actually declining. This is attributed to improved lifestyle habits, such as lower smoking rates and better management of blood pressure and blood sugar levels.

3. Key Areas of Focus (As of 2026)

Two major factors are currently influencing the trajectory of dementia statistics:

  • Widespread Use of New Drugs (e.g., Lecanemab): Treatments that remove the causative agents of Alzheimer’s are becoming more accessible. These are expected to delay the progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to full-onset dementia, potentially reducing the ratio of patients who reach "severe" stages.

Imagine my shock. Gemini's knowledge on this topic(like PDE5 inhibitors or Organic agricultures) is not referred here. It means Gemini knows something―there are lies here !!!


Google Gemini's view on Alzheimer's Disease in Japan here

This is a comprehensive overview of the current landscape of Alzheimer's and dementia statistics. Here is the English translation, formatted for clarity and professional use.

Analysis of Alzheimer’s Disease and Dementia Trends (2024–2026)

While the total number of patients continues to rise due to an aging population, recent studies have revised the projected prevalence rates (the proportion of the elderly affected) downward compared to previous estimates.

1. Trends and Latest Estimates in Japan

According to the latest projections released by a Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) research group in May 2024, the outlook through 2040 has been significantly lowered from the previous 2015 forecast.

YearEst. Number of Elderly with DementiaPercentage of Population (65+)
2022Approx. 4.43 million12.3%
2030Approx. 5.23 million14.2%
2040Approx. 5.84 million14.9%
2050Approx. 5.86 million15.1%
2060Approx. 6.45 million17.7%

  • Background of Downward Revision: Previous forecasts suggested that by 2025, "1 in 5 elderly people (20%)" would have dementia. However, latest data from four regions across Japan (including the Hisayama Study) show that the age-specific prevalence rate is actually declining. This is attributed to improved lifestyle habits, such as lower smoking rates and better management of blood pressure and blood sugar levels.

  • Disease Composition: Alzheimer’s disease accounts for approximately 60% to 70% of all dementia cases, a ratio that has remained stable over the long term.

2. Global Trends

The global outlook shows a clear divide between developed and developing nations.

  • Surge in Patient Numbers: According to the WHO, the global number of people living with dementia is expected to rise from 55 million in 2019 to 153 million by 2050. This is primarily driven by population growth and aging in low- and middle-income countries.

  • Japan’s Global Standing: As the world's most rapidly aging society, Japan’s prevalence of Alzheimer’s per 100,000 people remains among the highest in the world, even when compared to the U.S. and Europe.

  • Peak-out Projections: Some research in the Asian region suggests that the age-adjusted prevalence (the risk of developing dementia regardless of the aging population's size) may peak around 2028 and gradually decline thereafter.

3. Key Areas of Focus (As of 2026)

Two major factors are currently influencing the trajectory of dementia statistics:

  • Widespread Use of New Drugs (e.g., Lecanemab): Treatments that remove the causative agents of Alzheimer’s are becoming more accessible. These are expected to delay the progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to full-onset dementia, potentially reducing the ratio of patients who reach "severe" stages.

  • The Rise of MCI: By 2040, it is projected that 1 in 3 elderly individuals will have either dementia or MCI. We have entered a phase where early detection and intervention are directly linked to controlling the overall incidence rate.

[NOTE]

While "incidence" (the rate of new cases) and "prevalence" (the proportion of cases at a given time) are scientifically distinct, they are often discussed together in general statistics. In Japan, while an individual's personal risk of developing dementia is decreasing due to lifestyle improvements, the total number of patients continues to grow because the absolute number of elderly people in the "denominator" is increasing.

Would you like me to look into specific prevention strategies, more detailed regional statistics within Japan, or the latest clinical data on these new treatments?

Original Japanese Answer here

アルツハイマー病（およびそれを含む認知症全体）の罹病率・有病率の推移について、最新の統計データ（2024年〜2026年時点の情報）に基づき解説します。

結論から言うと、「患者数（実数）」は高齢化に伴い増加し続けていますが、「有病率（高齢者に占める割合）」の将来推計については、最近の研究で以前の予測よりも低めに修正されています。

1. 日本国内の推移と最新推計

厚生労働省の研究班が2024年5月に発表した最新の将来推計によると、2040年までの見通しは以前の予測（2015年発表分）から大幅に下方修正されました。

年次認知症高齢者数（推計）65歳以上人口に占める割合
2022年約443万人12.3%
2030年約523万人14.2%
2040年約584万人14.9%
2050年約586万人15.1%
2060年約645万人17.7%

  • 下方修正の背景: かつての予測では「2025年に高齢者の5人に1人（20%）」が認知症になるとされていましたが、最新の調査（久山町研究などを含む全国4地域のデータ）では、喫煙率の低下、血圧・血糖値の管理改善といった生活習慣の向上により、年齢階級別の有病率自体が低下傾向にあることが示されました。

  • 疾患構成: 認知症全体の約**60%〜70%**がアルツハイマー型であり、この割合は長期的にも大きな変動はありません。

2. 世界的なトレンド

世界全体で見ると、先進国と途上国で傾向が分かれています。

  • 患者数の激増: WHO（世界保健機関）などの報告では、世界全体の認知症患者数は2019年の約5,500万人から、2050年には約1億5,300万人にまで達すると予測されています。これは主に低・中所得国での高齢化と人口増加が要因です。

  • 日本は世界最高水準: 日本は世界で最も高齢化が進んでいるため、人口10万人あたりのアルツハイマー病の有病率は、米国や欧州諸国と比較しても世界最高レベルにあります。

  • 有病率のピークアウト予測: アジア地域の一部研究では、年齢調整後の有病率（高齢化の影響を除いた純粋な罹りやすさ）は2028年頃にピークを迎え、その後は緩やかに低下するとの予測もあります。

3. 今後の注目点（2026年時点）

現在、罹病率の推移に影響を与える大きな要因として以下の2点が注目されています。

  1. 新薬（レカネマブ等）の普及: アルツハイマー病の原因物質を除去する治療薬の普及により、軽度認知障害（MCI）から認知症への移行を遅らせる効果が期待されています。これにより「重症化する患者の割合」が抑制される可能性があります。

  2. MCI（軽度認知障害）の増加: 2040年には高齢者の約3人に1人が、認知症またはその前段階のMCIになると予測されており、早期発見・早期介入が罹病率の抑制に直結するフェーズに入っています。

[!NOTE]

「罹病率（新たに病気になる割合）」と「有病率（ある時点で病気である割合）」は厳密には異なりますが、統計上は「有病率」で語られることが一般的です。日本の最新データでは、個人が認知症になるリスク自体は生活習慣の改善で下がっていますが、分母となる高齢者の絶対数が増えるため、社会全体での患者数は増え続けるという構造になっています。

アルツハイマー病に関する特定の予防策や、さらに詳細な地域別の統計、あるいは最新の治療薬について詳しくお知りになりたいことはありますか？

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